by Bill Downey     Price Analysis of Gold and Silver
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Technical Analysis Trading Gold, Trading Silver/ analysis By Bill Downey providing key turning points & charts for investors and speculators in Precious Metals Trading, and Precious Metals Markets

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Bill Downey, of Gold Trends.net, LLC, is an Independent Investment Analyst with over twenty years of study. YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this WEBSITE AS RECOMMENDATIONS TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED. Do your own due diligence. No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. The author intends to portray his thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. GoldTrends does not accept responsibility for being incorrect in its speculations on market trend or key turning points that it may discuss since they are at best a calculated analysis based on historical price observations.

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  • 07 Dec 2017 2:15 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)
    Launch GoldTrends.net    



    A Signal Trade has occurred on GoldTrends.Net


    With the NFP report on Friday (tomorrow) and gold just remaining weak, I decided to have another look at the situation.

    Let's look at a weekly chart

    Here we see the potential to trade down the black dotted downtrend line near 1238.



    From a fibonacci standpoint we show that the 61.8% level has been broken.  Often prices will move to the 78.6% area.  It just so happens that price area is 1237.90 



    While it is still possible for gold to bottom near 1247,  my stop is right near the 78% retracement. 

    With NFP and FED FOMC meeting next week,  I still can't eliminate even 1204 and 1222.

    The 1237 area is only 15 bucks away and that can be child's play during NFP.  

    I'm going to cancel my current order and  replace my buy to 1238.80 spot.  Silver stays the same for now.

    NEW ORDER BELOW --- REPLACES OLD  

    ==================================================
    GOLD CURRENT WEBSITE TRADE
    ==================================================
    Buy 1 Contract gold 1238.80 spot

    Stop loss 1231.80  -- risk $7 dollars per ounce

    No target yet

    YTD = Gain $ 141.50 per ounce
    ==================================================
    SILVER CURRENT WEBSITE TRADE
    ==================================================
    Buy 1 silver contract 15.35 spot

    Stop loss 14.79 

    No target yet

    YTD = Gain $4.73 per ounce


    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
     Follow us on Twitter at @goldtrendsnet (no period)
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Disclaimer
    The analyst intends to portray his thoughts and ideas on the subject which may be used as a tool for the reader. GoldTrends does not accept responsibility for being incorrect in its speculations on market trend or key turning points that it may discuss since they are at best a calculated analysis based on historical price observations. Do your own diligence. This is not a recommendation for you to buy or sell any commodity or stock. The analyst is merely listing one of the trades for his own account and what you do with that information is entirely up to you.  The analyst lists his trades as soon as possible but due to his style there are times he has bought or sold a position based on the PATTERNS that have been presented at the moment.  On those occasions, be aware that you will receive information of a buy or sell point that analyst has ALREADY TAKEN FOR HIS OWN ACCOUNT. While that is not the intention, we want to make sure you know that it does happen. We are not brokers---we are traders. We DO provide trade orders we have PLACED as soon as we decide, but due to style there will be times we have already entered or exited and we make you aware of that in each update.


  • 07 Dec 2017 8:41 AM | Bill Downey (Administrator)
    Launch GoldTrends.net    


    The main line of support seems to lie in the 1222-1246 area in gold.  It's the 2011 downtrend line.  



    That 1249.95 area is where the control boys might be trying to take out  ?



    Blue cycle at the turn point as well




    Odds also favor a medium term buy point is near set up as well 



    What about Risk ?

    This is a medium term move.   I can't eliminate a move to 1200-1222 on the big picture for this low.  Keep that in mind.

    NFP REPORT ON FRIDAY AND FED FOMC MEETING NEXT WEEK.  

    Summary

    Odds favor an important low between Dec 3rd - Jan 3rd.  

    There are no absolutes,  only odds.

    I buy gold at 1247 spot and silver at 15.35.  Orders are below


    ==================================================
    GOLD CURRENT WEBSITE TRADE
    ==================================================
    Buy 1 contract gold 1247 spot

    No target yet

    Stop loss sell point = 1235 spot (for now)

    YTD Gain = $141.50 per ounce

    ==================================================
    SILVER CURRENT WEBSITE TRADE
    ==================================================
    Buy 1 contract silver 15.35 spot

    No target yet

    Stop loss sell point 14.80 spot

    YTD Gain = $4.73 per ounce
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
     Follow us on Twitter at @goldtrendsnet (no period)
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Disclaimer
    The analyst intends to portray his thoughts and ideas on the subject which may be used as a tool for the reader. GoldTrends does not accept responsibility for being incorrect in its speculations on market trend or key turning points that it may discuss since they are at best a calculated analysis based on historical price observations. Do your own diligence. This is not a recommendation for you to buy or sell any commodity or stock. The analyst is merely listing one of the trades for his own account and what you do with that information is entirely up to you.  The analyst lists his trades as soon as possible but due to his style there are times he has bought or sold a position based on the PATTERNS that have been presented at the moment.  On those occasions, be aware that you will receive information of a buy or sell point that analyst has ALREADY TAKEN FOR HIS OWN ACCOUNT. While that is not the intention, we want to make sure you know that it does happen. We are not brokers---we are traders. We DO provide trade orders we have PLACED as soon as we decide, but due to style there will be times we have already entered or exited and we make you aware of that in each update.


  • 20 Nov 2017 12:04 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

    Launch GoldTrends.net  


    At the moment,  odds (not absolutes) favor gold as putting in a high on our cycles chart.    The next blue cycle is Due Dec 3rd - plus or minus 72 hours (which happens to be the 2 year anniversary of the low at 1045 for this bear market).   




    Because of the tightness of the range, even though it's not the odds,  it is not impossible that the chart could be interpreted like the one below.  It is NOT the odds favored,  but it can't be ruled out yet.  


    What would favor this scenario.   A close above 1297-1308.  A close above 1308 will favor higher prices into Dec 3rd.   





    There are many opinions in the market.   But in the end,  the market offers ODDS, and not absolutes.


    The red cycle window closes after trade on Tuesday. Any new closing high above 1300 after Wednesday, should be a warning sign and any close above 1308 will favor higher into Dec 3rd.   Otherwise, favor a the top is in and lower from here.


    First support comes in around 1277.    There should be some support at 1268-1272 and at 1261-1265.   




    Finally,  the choppy overlapping structure of what has happened in November favors the downside still being in charge since the September high at 1362.   Only a close above 1297-1308 would change things on the short term.


    ==================================================
    GOLD CURRENT WEBSITE TRADE
    ==================================================
    no current trade


    YTD = Gain $ 141.50 per oz


    ==================================================
    SILVER CURRENT WEBSITE TRADE
    ==================================================

    no current trade


    YTD = Gain $ 4.34



    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

     Follow us on Twitter at @goldtrendsnet (no period)
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    Disclaimer
    The analyst intends to portray his thoughts and ideas on the subject which may be used as a tool for the reader. GoldTrends does not accept responsibility for being incorrect in its speculations on market trend or key turning points that it may discuss since they are at best a calculated analysis based on historical price observations. Do your own diligence. This is not a recommendation for you to buy or sell any commodity or stock. The analyst is merely listing one of the trades for his own account and what you do with that information is entirely up to you.  The analyst lists his trades as soon as possible but due to his style there are times he has bought or sold a position based on the PATTERNS that have been presented at the moment.  On those occasions, be aware that you will receive information of a buy or sell point that analyst has ALREADY TAKEN FOR HIS OWN ACCOUNT. While that is not the intention, we want to make sure you know that it does happen. We are not brokers---we are traders. We DO provide trade orders we have PLACED as soon as we decide, but due to style there will be times we have already entered or exited and we make you aware of that in each update.


  • 30 Oct 2017 3:08 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

    Cycles

    Gold is getting its pullback into the next Blue cycle low due Nov 4th (plus or minus 72 hours). That means a low later this week or early next week. With the FOMC meeting on Tuesday/Wednesday and the NFP report being out Friday, odds favor the lows will occur the 2nd half of this week or early next week. Either way, a blue cycle low favors bullish for gold in November.


    Summary

    Odds favor the downtrend remains in play going into Nov 4th (+/- 72 hours). Thus the gold window opens on Tuesday. Don’t forget the NFP report on Friday and the FED FOMC on Tuesday & Wednesday.


  • 30 Sep 2017 9:07 AM | Bill Downey (Administrator)


    Gold Cycles

    On the chart below we see how the blue cycles have picked the lows when gold became bullish and the highs when gold became bearish on the intermediate term. The next blue gold cycle is October 5th (plus or minus 72 hours). A blue cycle low would have the odds favor a gold bottom and a return to a BULLISH cycle posture on the intermediate term. Odds favor either 1272-1282 or 1247-1262 as the two places most likely to bottom on this gold pullback ideally on Oct 5th (plus or minus 72 hours).


    What I don’t want to see in cycles

    Because we have hit important support near 1280, it is not out of the question for gold to begin a bounce here that leads to 1298-1308 or even 1322 into the blue cycle. If that happens, the intermediate term will remain bearish.


    Short Term


  • 11 Sep 2017 11:01 AM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

    Cycles

    Our last update on the website discussed:

    Odds favor a pullback or sideways action towards the next coming blue cycle on Sept 6th (plus or minus 72 hours). But a close above 1298 will favor higher into Sept 6th.

    We got our close above 1298 on August 28th and indeed gold moved higher into Sept 6th.

    Odds favor that a pullback into Sept 20th (plus/Minus 72 hours) is underway. From there gold should begin another short term rally into early October. However, with a Blue Cycle high we should be cautious that a more prolonged correction in gold could take place.



  • 23 Aug 2017 1:08 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

    Long Term TREND – Moving Averages (Blue 1212-Red 1213 = NEUTRAL

    Blue Average must cross above Red for FULL BULLISH. Averages are within 1 dollar of each other. Long term trend near flipping BULLISH.

    Long Term Observations

    Gold tested the moving averages at 1209-1214 in July. It got as low as 1204 but closed the week above both averages keeping the long term trend neutral. We discussed a close below 1205 would not be good but gold held and has now rallied back to the 2011 downtrend line. It runs in the 1272-1298 zone area. The biggest resistance is 1272-1288 at the moment and then 1308-1322. A monthly close above these area’s would greatly increase the potential that the bear market is over. The moving averages are ready to turn bullish as well. This is yet another moment of truth for long term gold.


    From time cycles it is important to note that the rally into 2011 lasted 144 months. July will be the 72nd month and half the time of the 2011 rally. If there is to be a 2nd half of the year that is meaningful, odds favor the low will occur in July. While certainly not definite, it happens enough times to keep a watch out for.


    The last Long term window forecast was for “the” low to take place between Dec 2015-March 2016 and December 2015 was the low so far. But with that forecast gold has to conquer the 2011 downtrend line. Until it does, I can’t rule out one more final low.

    A monthly close above 1362 would be the highest odds favor that the BULL MARKET in gold is back on.


  • 28 Jul 2017 8:30 AM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

    Medium Term TREND ~ NEUTRAL- (Moving averages (Red) 1229-1224 (Blue)

    We discussed last week  with our subscribers that the potential that gold has made a summer low was possible. The test of 1205 the previous week and the bounce back above the moving averages kept the potential alive that gold can move higher from here. The key has been and remains the 2011 downtrend line. A close above 1262-1272 for 2 consecutive weeks would be a bullish turnaround factor of high degree. Price is once again knocking at the door of piercing the line.

    As we also said on the last update, if there’s any good news, it’s that a JULY/AUG low in gold (instead of the highs we have been getting) would be more in script of a bullish set up. Now once again gold is at the line. Odds favor a close above 1262-1272 this week would have us turning bullish on the medium term trend and favor that the summer low is in place with gold moving higher the 2nd half of this year.


    Summary - THE OVERALL bottom line for now is that the downtrend that began in 2011 is being once again tested. A close above 1272 on 2 consecutive Friday's should be enough for us to favor the downtrend line has been finally taken out.


  • 05 Jul 2017 10:44 AM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

    Gold Weekly Report

    28 Jun 2017 7:48 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)


    Why isn’t gold breaking out of its downtrend and moving higher?

    With the escalation of violence and war in the Mid-East, one would think that gold and oil would be soaring to new highs for the year. Yet the opposite is happening.

    The truth of the matter is when gold and oil are in bull markets, these type of events spur these commodities to move much higher. But when they are in bear markets, they are not affected.


    The opposite case in point is the US stock market. Even though all signs point to a retraction in economic activity as well as a myriad of bearish statistics, the Dow continues to move higher.

    It goes a long way to show just how important “sentiment” and money flow is to a market.


    So where is gold sentiment right now?

    At the moment the producers and users of gold haven’t been this short since July 2013. Though they are not always right, they are considered the smart money and are usually on the right side of the market. This is suggestive that gold should break under this week’s low of at some point in July. The next lower target for gold will be 1231. Only a move above 1262 would change that outlook.


    As far as the trade side, the users and producers (smart money) remain on the short side of the trade. They are not always right, but enough that odds favor the downtrend that started when gold reached 1298 is still in effect.

    As far as the numbers go, we can see that the large traders are long 2 to 1 and the commercials are holding the short side.


    In addition to the smart money being net short, inflation statistics have taken a spike down recently and that doesn’t help the price of gold.


    While the cost of living continues to move higher, it is important to note that it is a mainly a result of rising government taxes, services and excise. And even though we see rising costs from producers and companies, it is mostly cost passed on from the ever rising cost of government regulations on industry.

    Believe it or not, we are actually in a deflationary spiral since 2008. Had the central banks not initiated the QE (quantitive easing) programs the global economies would have collapsed.

    A great example of deflationary trends is this flyer from Radio Shack. It shows how much the cost of technology has collapsed.


    But it’s not just technology.

    The core of inflation lies in raw commodity prices. While everyone thinks that raw commodity prices have been rising for their entire lives, they are 100% wrong. The chart below shows that raw commodity prices have collapsed to levels not seen since 1976. The reason that the hyperinflation bugs have gotten it wrong is because they look at the COST OF LIVING and not INFLATION due to raw commodity price.



    The point is this. For those of us who follow gold this chart is most important because it is a very rare event that gold rises without raw commodities doing the same. That rare event is when there is a LOSS OF CONFIDENCE in government or the financial system. And while many of us have already lost that confidence, it is only when the GENERAL PUBLIC make this realization that PANIC ensues. Odds favor that loss of confidence will occur between 2018-2022. Until then, commodities in general will have to stop falling if gold is to reverse the downtrend we’ve been in since 2011. As a side note, this chart only covers up to 2014. But the trend since then has not reversed. The CRB index is currently trading at 167 so this chart remains valid.



    Intermediate Term – Bearish (Moving Averages = 120.33 – 120.56)

    Last week we listed the best chance of producing a short term low at (115.50 & 117.50) for the coming week. The low turned out to be 118.15

    Only a close above 121.50 would negate this short term outlook and suggest the short term lows are in place. Resistance is that descending green downtrend line and support is at the horizontal white lines between 115 and 117. Until then it’s a sideways market without real trend.


    Medium Term TREND ~ NEUTRAL- (Moving averages (Red) 1233-1226 (Blue)

    The big news in June is that gold exceeded the 2011 downtrend line. But as we stated last update, we needed a WEEKLY close above 1285 to confirm. That did not occur and gold since drifted back to the 1250 area.

    THE OVERALL bottom line for now is that the downtrend that began in 2011 remains (at the moment) in force.

    As long as gold doesn’t close below 1222 on a weekly and monthly basis, the chance for gold to move higher remains in place. With that said, the blue moving average (1226) remains below the red (1233) and that leaves the medium term trend neutral at the moment.

    The best medium term read at the moment is gold is not quite ready for prime time yet. A MONTHLY CLOSE below 1206 could open the door to another year where gold’s first half year rally turns into a 2nd half selloff.

    The best scenario to look for is if gold can pull back into the middle to end of July without closing below 1200. That would be suggestive that a 2nd half rally is being setup in gold.


    Long Term TREND

    New Long Term Observation

    From time cycles it is important to note that the rally into 2011 lasted 144 months. July will be the 72nd month and half the time of the 2011 rally. If there is to be a 2nd half of the year that is meaningful, odds favor the low will occur in July. While certainly not definite, it happens enough times to to keep a watch out for.


    Current Long Term Situation

    NEUTRAL– (Moving Averages 1208-1214)

    As long as monthly closes are above 1195-1205 the long term trend is neutral and a monthly close above 1322-1338 will favor that the trend moves to bullish on Long Term.

    The 2015 low bear market low so far at 1045. The quarterly long term chart we published a year ago shows “one” of the reasons we felt Dec 2015-March 2016 would be the turning point for this bull market. The next clue we need for confirmation would be a quarterly close above 1438-1488.

    The rally into July 2016 was the first of 5 waves. The correction into December was the 2nd wave lower. We estimated in November either 1172-1182 or 1072-1122 (weekly closing basis) as the two target price ranges that favored where the price low should take place. So far the low was 1122 during December and

    The last Long term window forecast was for “the” low to take place between Dec 2015-March 2016 and December 2015 was the the odds favor the July correction complete.


    The correction since July 2016

    As described in previous reports since August, our analysis has favored the current correction that began in July to end in the November 2016 to January 2017 time frame. How that TURN looks on its pattern will give evidence if it’s just going to be a bounce like we saw in the first half of 2016 or more. In our (Jan 6th) update, the forecast favored the turn has been underway since Dec 21st. In order to CONFIRM THE TURN, GOLD NEEDS to now take out the 2011 downtrend line. A monthly close above 1322 would favor 1365-1438.

    Long Term Continued

    The BLUE average (1209) has to get above the RED average (1216) and price has to be above both averages on two monthly closes for the LONG TERM trend to turn Bullish.

    Last week we reported that the MAY 2017 in gold has tested the moving averages and odds favored a bounce from that area. So far so good.

    BOTTOM LINE

    We favor the low was made in 2015 and a break above the 2011 downtrend line and (1308-1322) favors a test of 1365-1438 next.

    But until we take out the 2011 downtrend line on a monthly closing basis, gold is still technically trapped inside a downtrend channel (and a wedge) on the chart. We’re at the BREAK POINT NOW as we decide who controls the market. This is a most important price point in gold (1308-1322)

    Gold Stocks

    Moving Averages (blue) 22.64 – 22.71 (Red) - intermediate term trend = BEARISH.

    Short Term

    On the last update, I discussed that odds favored the pullback would continue until we reached the support zone of 19.80-21.50. Since then, the low has been 21.60. The question becomes is that enough?

    Seasonal charts show that gold stocks most often make their lows in July. While every year is not the same, at the moment, odds favor the low in gold stocks will occur in July.


    Going to the GDX chart

    Until we breach that dotted gold trend line, I remain cautious. Gold stocks are best described at the moment as sideways without a defined trend.

    Resistance is now at 24 and at 25.50 and support remains 19.80-21.50.

    We need to plow above that green resistance line (and the dotted gold) to change the situation to bullish on gold stocks.

    Short term prices are in a sideways trend until one of the lines is taken out.


    Interest Rates – Medium Term = NEUTRAL ON RATES

    MOVING AVERAGE BLUE 23.46 – Red 22.57

    Long Term

    As long as price remains above the 1981 downtrend line, the long term low for interest rates has taken place in our lifetime.

    Rates rise either due to GLOBAL GROWTH & CONFIDENCE, or GLOBAL FEAR due to POLITICAL & ECONOMIC & SOCIAL UPHEAVAL.

    One or all have a chance to develop from now into 2018.

    As for gold, it is our analysis that gold goes up during dramatic shifts in interest rates.

    On a shorter term basis, even with the Fed raising rates two weeks ago, rates continue to pullback since the highs. Support is the two green dual trend lines. Odds favor one of these two lines will provide the pullback low in rates this summer.


    although there is a feedback loop between gross market rates and Fed activity, most of the time the Fed is simply following the lead of the T-bill rate. That is fairly obvious when looking at a comparison chart. Every rate hike in the current cycle was preceded by a surge in the three-month T-bill discount rate from below to above the effective FF rate.


    US Dollar – Long Term = arriving at key 93-96 area on the index

    The dollar remains in our forecasted correction that we suggested would develop from the Fed Liquidity Panic Line. That correction remains in play.

    Longer term trends are still up (at the moment) but we continue to say odds favor the control boyz are trying to reverse the trend of the USD back down. It has now arrived at the first critical long term area on the chart.

    The USD is testing the first of two lines on the chart that provides the first important support points. Odds favor that one of these two lines is where the next dollar bounce will begin at (in this time frame). With price arriving at the long term moving averages (93-96) and where support line occurs, odds do favor the USD will make a low in this 93-96 area and attempt to stage a rebound.

    This wave structure, if it develops, could spur an overall rebound into early-Sept. 2017.


    Stocks

    Medium Term – Bullish

    Moving Averages 19850-19450

    The long term trend in stocks remains relentless since the Global Central Bankers Fed 19 Trillion Dollars into the SYSTEM in 2009 and brought the cost of borrowing money to zero. However, as we`ve discussed in the previous updates, the 21K level in the Dow has been our target since the end of November when we took out that white line near 19000 on the Dow. This upper line represents extreme resistance. Price has yet to exceed that resistance line. And that’s what it comes down to. The line is now at 21880.


    Bottom line

    The stock market remains in a very steep uptrend channel since 2009. As long as it remains in the channel, the trend remains up. Odds favor price will correct from the top channel line to the support line at some point as it has done since 2009. Was the high in March 2017 close enough to the resistance line or does it kiss it one more time?

    The uncertainty that is growing from a social, political and thus economic standpoint is staggering. The only thing that has most likely kept money flowing in is that a lot of the rest of the world is in worse shape. The trend is still up, but so is risk.

    Gold Bottom line

    short term

    odds favor a low near July 8th (plus or minus 72 hours) and then a bounce into the week of the 23rd of July

    Medium Term

    Odds favor July/August for a low

    Long Term

    Odds favor the gold bull market will resume when we take out the 2011 downtrend line and a monthly close above 1322 & 1362.   First we have to take out the downtrend line on a monthly closing basis.




  • 07 Jun 2017 2:31 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

    Cycle Inversion

    WE got our close last week above 1272 and that was the point we favored a cycle inversion would occur and a continued rally towards June 9th (plus/minus 72 hours).

    Here we are arriving at the cycle window and while the rally wasn’t as strong as I thought it could be, we still did rally into this date.

    Odds favor we begin a pullback after this week into the next cycle date of June 23rd (plus or minus 72 hours).


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Technical Analysis :: Gold & Silver

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