by Bill Downey     Price Analysis of Gold and Silver
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Technical Analysis Trading Gold, Trading Silver/ analysis By Bill Downey providing key turning points & charts for investors and speculators in Precious Metals Trading, and Precious Metals Markets

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Bill Downey, of Gold Trends.net, LLC, is an Independent Investment Analyst with over twenty years of study. YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this WEBSITE AS RECOMMENDATIONS TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED. Do your own due diligence. No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. The author intends to portray his thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. GoldTrends does not accept responsibility for being incorrect in its speculations on market trend or key turning points that it may discuss since they are at best a calculated analysis based on historical price observations.

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  • 28 Jul 2017 8:30 AM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

    Medium Term TREND ~ NEUTRAL- (Moving averages (Red) 1229-1224 (Blue)

    We discussed last week  with our subscribers that the potential that gold has made a summer low was possible. The test of 1205 the previous week and the bounce back above the moving averages kept the potential alive that gold can move higher from here. The key has been and remains the 2011 downtrend line. A close above 1262-1272 for 2 consecutive weeks would be a bullish turnaround factor of high degree. Price is once again knocking at the door of piercing the line.

    As we also said on the last update, if there’s any good news, it’s that a JULY/AUG low in gold (instead of the highs we have been getting) would be more in script of a bullish set up. Now once again gold is at the line. Odds favor a close above 1262-1272 this week would have us turning bullish on the medium term trend and favor that the summer low is in place with gold moving higher the 2nd half of this year.


    Summary - THE OVERALL bottom line for now is that the downtrend that began in 2011 is being once again tested. A close above 1272 on 2 consecutive Friday's should be enough for us to favor the downtrend line has been finally taken out.


  • 05 Jul 2017 10:44 AM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

    Gold Weekly Report

    28 Jun 2017 7:48 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)


    Why isn’t gold breaking out of its downtrend and moving higher?

    With the escalation of violence and war in the Mid-East, one would think that gold and oil would be soaring to new highs for the year. Yet the opposite is happening.

    The truth of the matter is when gold and oil are in bull markets, these type of events spur these commodities to move much higher. But when they are in bear markets, they are not affected.


    The opposite case in point is the US stock market. Even though all signs point to a retraction in economic activity as well as a myriad of bearish statistics, the Dow continues to move higher.

    It goes a long way to show just how important “sentiment” and money flow is to a market.


    So where is gold sentiment right now?

    At the moment the producers and users of gold haven’t been this short since July 2013. Though they are not always right, they are considered the smart money and are usually on the right side of the market. This is suggestive that gold should break under this week’s low of at some point in July. The next lower target for gold will be 1231. Only a move above 1262 would change that outlook.


    As far as the trade side, the users and producers (smart money) remain on the short side of the trade. They are not always right, but enough that odds favor the downtrend that started when gold reached 1298 is still in effect.

    As far as the numbers go, we can see that the large traders are long 2 to 1 and the commercials are holding the short side.


    In addition to the smart money being net short, inflation statistics have taken a spike down recently and that doesn’t help the price of gold.


    While the cost of living continues to move higher, it is important to note that it is a mainly a result of rising government taxes, services and excise. And even though we see rising costs from producers and companies, it is mostly cost passed on from the ever rising cost of government regulations on industry.

    Believe it or not, we are actually in a deflationary spiral since 2008. Had the central banks not initiated the QE (quantitive easing) programs the global economies would have collapsed.

    A great example of deflationary trends is this flyer from Radio Shack. It shows how much the cost of technology has collapsed.


    But it’s not just technology.

    The core of inflation lies in raw commodity prices. While everyone thinks that raw commodity prices have been rising for their entire lives, they are 100% wrong. The chart below shows that raw commodity prices have collapsed to levels not seen since 1976. The reason that the hyperinflation bugs have gotten it wrong is because they look at the COST OF LIVING and not INFLATION due to raw commodity price.



    The point is this. For those of us who follow gold this chart is most important because it is a very rare event that gold rises without raw commodities doing the same. That rare event is when there is a LOSS OF CONFIDENCE in government or the financial system. And while many of us have already lost that confidence, it is only when the GENERAL PUBLIC make this realization that PANIC ensues. Odds favor that loss of confidence will occur between 2018-2022. Until then, commodities in general will have to stop falling if gold is to reverse the downtrend we’ve been in since 2011. As a side note, this chart only covers up to 2014. But the trend since then has not reversed. The CRB index is currently trading at 167 so this chart remains valid.



    Intermediate Term – Bearish (Moving Averages = 120.33 – 120.56)

    Last week we listed the best chance of producing a short term low at (115.50 & 117.50) for the coming week. The low turned out to be 118.15

    Only a close above 121.50 would negate this short term outlook and suggest the short term lows are in place. Resistance is that descending green downtrend line and support is at the horizontal white lines between 115 and 117. Until then it’s a sideways market without real trend.


    Medium Term TREND ~ NEUTRAL- (Moving averages (Red) 1233-1226 (Blue)

    The big news in June is that gold exceeded the 2011 downtrend line. But as we stated last update, we needed a WEEKLY close above 1285 to confirm. That did not occur and gold since drifted back to the 1250 area.

    THE OVERALL bottom line for now is that the downtrend that began in 2011 remains (at the moment) in force.

    As long as gold doesn’t close below 1222 on a weekly and monthly basis, the chance for gold to move higher remains in place. With that said, the blue moving average (1226) remains below the red (1233) and that leaves the medium term trend neutral at the moment.

    The best medium term read at the moment is gold is not quite ready for prime time yet. A MONTHLY CLOSE below 1206 could open the door to another year where gold’s first half year rally turns into a 2nd half selloff.

    The best scenario to look for is if gold can pull back into the middle to end of July without closing below 1200. That would be suggestive that a 2nd half rally is being setup in gold.


    Long Term TREND

    New Long Term Observation

    From time cycles it is important to note that the rally into 2011 lasted 144 months. July will be the 72nd month and half the time of the 2011 rally. If there is to be a 2nd half of the year that is meaningful, odds favor the low will occur in July. While certainly not definite, it happens enough times to to keep a watch out for.


    Current Long Term Situation

    NEUTRAL– (Moving Averages 1208-1214)

    As long as monthly closes are above 1195-1205 the long term trend is neutral and a monthly close above 1322-1338 will favor that the trend moves to bullish on Long Term.

    The 2015 low bear market low so far at 1045. The quarterly long term chart we published a year ago shows “one” of the reasons we felt Dec 2015-March 2016 would be the turning point for this bull market. The next clue we need for confirmation would be a quarterly close above 1438-1488.

    The rally into July 2016 was the first of 5 waves. The correction into December was the 2nd wave lower. We estimated in November either 1172-1182 or 1072-1122 (weekly closing basis) as the two target price ranges that favored where the price low should take place. So far the low was 1122 during December and

    The last Long term window forecast was for “the” low to take place between Dec 2015-March 2016 and December 2015 was the the odds favor the July correction complete.


    The correction since July 2016

    As described in previous reports since August, our analysis has favored the current correction that began in July to end in the November 2016 to January 2017 time frame. How that TURN looks on its pattern will give evidence if it’s just going to be a bounce like we saw in the first half of 2016 or more. In our (Jan 6th) update, the forecast favored the turn has been underway since Dec 21st. In order to CONFIRM THE TURN, GOLD NEEDS to now take out the 2011 downtrend line. A monthly close above 1322 would favor 1365-1438.

    Long Term Continued

    The BLUE average (1209) has to get above the RED average (1216) and price has to be above both averages on two monthly closes for the LONG TERM trend to turn Bullish.

    Last week we reported that the MAY 2017 in gold has tested the moving averages and odds favored a bounce from that area. So far so good.

    BOTTOM LINE

    We favor the low was made in 2015 and a break above the 2011 downtrend line and (1308-1322) favors a test of 1365-1438 next.

    But until we take out the 2011 downtrend line on a monthly closing basis, gold is still technically trapped inside a downtrend channel (and a wedge) on the chart. We’re at the BREAK POINT NOW as we decide who controls the market. This is a most important price point in gold (1308-1322)

    Gold Stocks

    Moving Averages (blue) 22.64 – 22.71 (Red) - intermediate term trend = BEARISH.

    Short Term

    On the last update, I discussed that odds favored the pullback would continue until we reached the support zone of 19.80-21.50. Since then, the low has been 21.60. The question becomes is that enough?

    Seasonal charts show that gold stocks most often make their lows in July. While every year is not the same, at the moment, odds favor the low in gold stocks will occur in July.


    Going to the GDX chart

    Until we breach that dotted gold trend line, I remain cautious. Gold stocks are best described at the moment as sideways without a defined trend.

    Resistance is now at 24 and at 25.50 and support remains 19.80-21.50.

    We need to plow above that green resistance line (and the dotted gold) to change the situation to bullish on gold stocks.

    Short term prices are in a sideways trend until one of the lines is taken out.


    Interest Rates – Medium Term = NEUTRAL ON RATES

    MOVING AVERAGE BLUE 23.46 – Red 22.57

    Long Term

    As long as price remains above the 1981 downtrend line, the long term low for interest rates has taken place in our lifetime.

    Rates rise either due to GLOBAL GROWTH & CONFIDENCE, or GLOBAL FEAR due to POLITICAL & ECONOMIC & SOCIAL UPHEAVAL.

    One or all have a chance to develop from now into 2018.

    As for gold, it is our analysis that gold goes up during dramatic shifts in interest rates.

    On a shorter term basis, even with the Fed raising rates two weeks ago, rates continue to pullback since the highs. Support is the two green dual trend lines. Odds favor one of these two lines will provide the pullback low in rates this summer.


    although there is a feedback loop between gross market rates and Fed activity, most of the time the Fed is simply following the lead of the T-bill rate. That is fairly obvious when looking at a comparison chart. Every rate hike in the current cycle was preceded by a surge in the three-month T-bill discount rate from below to above the effective FF rate.


    US Dollar – Long Term = arriving at key 93-96 area on the index

    The dollar remains in our forecasted correction that we suggested would develop from the Fed Liquidity Panic Line. That correction remains in play.

    Longer term trends are still up (at the moment) but we continue to say odds favor the control boyz are trying to reverse the trend of the USD back down. It has now arrived at the first critical long term area on the chart.

    The USD is testing the first of two lines on the chart that provides the first important support points. Odds favor that one of these two lines is where the next dollar bounce will begin at (in this time frame). With price arriving at the long term moving averages (93-96) and where support line occurs, odds do favor the USD will make a low in this 93-96 area and attempt to stage a rebound.

    This wave structure, if it develops, could spur an overall rebound into early-Sept. 2017.


    Stocks

    Medium Term – Bullish

    Moving Averages 19850-19450

    The long term trend in stocks remains relentless since the Global Central Bankers Fed 19 Trillion Dollars into the SYSTEM in 2009 and brought the cost of borrowing money to zero. However, as we`ve discussed in the previous updates, the 21K level in the Dow has been our target since the end of November when we took out that white line near 19000 on the Dow. This upper line represents extreme resistance. Price has yet to exceed that resistance line. And that’s what it comes down to. The line is now at 21880.


    Bottom line

    The stock market remains in a very steep uptrend channel since 2009. As long as it remains in the channel, the trend remains up. Odds favor price will correct from the top channel line to the support line at some point as it has done since 2009. Was the high in March 2017 close enough to the resistance line or does it kiss it one more time?

    The uncertainty that is growing from a social, political and thus economic standpoint is staggering. The only thing that has most likely kept money flowing in is that a lot of the rest of the world is in worse shape. The trend is still up, but so is risk.

    Gold Bottom line

    short term

    odds favor a low near July 8th (plus or minus 72 hours) and then a bounce into the week of the 23rd of July

    Medium Term

    Odds favor July/August for a low

    Long Term

    Odds favor the gold bull market will resume when we take out the 2011 downtrend line and a monthly close above 1322 & 1362.   First we have to take out the downtrend line on a monthly closing basis.




  • 07 Jun 2017 2:31 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

    Cycle Inversion

    WE got our close last week above 1272 and that was the point we favored a cycle inversion would occur and a continued rally towards June 9th (plus/minus 72 hours).

    Here we are arriving at the cycle window and while the rally wasn’t as strong as I thought it could be, we still did rally into this date.

    Odds favor we begin a pullback after this week into the next cycle date of June 23rd (plus or minus 72 hours).


  • 01 May 2017 2:57 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

    GOLD

    Medium term

    We continue to favor our forecast from last year for a Dec 2015 or March 2016 low in gold remains valid. We were successful in calling the exact month (Dec 2015) as the gold low but now we want to see the 2011 downtrend line taken out. It’s the last downtrend line on the chart and until it gets taken out, gold can continue its pullback. We’d like to see two monthly closes above 1388 (the 2014 high) to put confidence that the next leg up in gold is underway.



  • 06 Apr 2017 9:03 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

    Gold

    Short Term – Bullish (near resistance & short term cycle turn)

    The last website subscriber update odds favored 1261-1272 as resistance and we got 1261 high since then. Support had been listed at 1230-1239 and low has been 1239.90 (spot prices). We favored lower into this time frame, on a close below 1239-1244. While we got as low as 1239, we did not close below.

    As you can see price has been moving sideways refusing to sell off. That’s usually bullish. So is hanging around a trend line for so long. So is hanging around a moving average for so long. It’s hard for me to be anything but bullish at the moment. Especially with the short term cycle turn arriving (see cycles). The one thing however, is the downtrend line at 1261 and 1272-1275 areas are strong resistance. We plow there and odds favor the upper gold channel will be hit.

    Watch 1261-1275 for resistance zone & the dual upper channel resistance area.


    Additional note

    While I will look at the 50 and 200 day averages to see what everyone else is looking at - I personally watch Fibonacci 89 & 233 Day Moving  Averages.  They do a good job defining the intermediate term trend as well as key support and resistance tests to watch.

    Summary – Odds favor a bottom between now and early next week and a move higher into the last week of April. That`s the odds favored scenario. A close below 1222 means somethings not right with the forecast. It’s best to keep in mind that APRIL is often (not always) but often a choppy affair. The political DYNAMITE & CIVIL UNREST surfacing globally is most likely the catalyst (FEAR) that gold has been waiting for.

    There are odds in markets but no absolutes.   The odds favor if gold takes out that downtrend line above the 233 day average, and pushes above 1275, we should see the upper channel tested.

    Cycles

    Last update favored a turn down from the red cycle of March 28th to the blue cycle due on April 11th (plus or minus 72 hours).

    The NFP (Non Farm Payroll) comes out on Friday at 8:30 AM. It's often a turning point for gold.

    From a cycle standpoint the ideal date is April 11th (plus or minus 72 hours). That means that the window opens on Saturday. So for gold to turn on Friday certainly would still be in context of a turn. I say that because so far, gold has been REFUSING to do anything but go sideways. That often is a clue that gold has underlying strength.

    Odds favor gold is just waiting for the window to turn up. I say odds, because as you know there are no absolutes. With that said, odds are high we get a turn on Friday or early next week.


    Summary

    There is no one indicator that works all the time.  What one looks for is something that works 75% of the time.   

    Thus odds favor gold makes turns up either Friday or early week and moves higher into the next red cycle due April 26th (plus or minus 72 hours) which is the next red cycle date.

    A weekly close below 1222 anytime after next Wednesday will favor a short term cycle failure and will invalidate this short term forecast.


  • 20 Mar 2017 6:28 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)

    Short term Gold 

    Support for the week is 1217-1225 and 1205-1213 (depending when this week’s pullback takes place). If no pullback, Resistance to beat is 1235-1240. The overall trend remains up until we take out 11955. A close below 1195 and odds favor we are wrong about the uptrend remaining in place into April/May.


    I’ve adjusted the 2017 channel to fit the price parameters. On a higher level overall, anything in between 1195-1237 is neutral zone. Whichever side gold chooses should set the pace into April/May.


    The seasonal chart favors gold bottoming in March and a bounce back into April or May. While this is not the only reason, and this is an average of 20 years (1994-2014), that encompasses both bull and bear times in gold, it is something I do keep an eye on. During bear markets, gold fails to deliver in the 2nd half of the year. Sometimes, even in the 1st part of the year. During Bull markets, the 2nd half of the year is where we get big moves. You can see that the Seasonal does show a bit more lower potential into next week (where we have a medium term cycle). However, seasonal charts do not EMIT PRECISE turns, but on AVERAGE. The bottom line is gold should make a low in March and then attempt a rally into April or May.


    Short Term Continued

    SUMMARY

    Odds still favor the overall trend is higher into next week.

    Cycles

    The last cycle turn was March 13th (plus or minus 72 hours) and the low was within the cycle window.

    The rotation is back to Blue cycle lows and that’s what we want to see because blue cycle lows favor gold in a bullish position. The other thing to be aware of is the medium cycle is due this week - March 20th (plus or minus 2 weeks). The previous 3 medium term cycles had gold making its low (in one case a high) just after the blue cycle. Suffice to say that gold has NOW INVERTED to a blue cycle low and we’re expecting gold to bottom last week and begin a rally attempt. So far so good but because of the medium term cycle, I can’t rule out a pullback either towards 1207-1213 or 1218-1222 this week.


    Cycles continued

    Summary

    Odds favor gold rallies into the next red cycle due March 28th (plus or minus 72 hours).


  • 07 Mar 2017 2:26 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)



    Here is a sample of our trade signals for subscribers.  This one was Posted March 7th 2017.


    Launch GoldTrends.net    


    A Signal Trade update on GoldTrends.Net

    With the NFP (Non Farm Payroll) report on Friday, and then the Fed Interest rate decision on March 15th, there's a lot of pressure on gold being exerted by the beliefs of Wall St and Main St.  

    Gold is in the process of testing the lower 2017 uptrend line which runs from 1206-1211 on the lower line.   Gold is testing the January highs for the year as well.   Thus the 1206-1222 area is important.  It's the first area that could provide support.   The other area of interest would be the 1172-1182 area where the 2013 low resides along with the END OF JANUARY LOW on the chart.   


    Cycles

    The Ideal time to buy still looks to be next week.    More important is the fact that the cycle has inverted from blue cycle highs to red cycle high and we're heading to a blue cycle low.  THIS IS WHAT WE WANT FOR A BULLISH ROTATION.   That's what the odds favor is going to happen.   Just remember there are odds,  but NO absolutes in markets.   Odds are our best chance to find a good trade.  One that has the best chance of making (and not losing) money.   If you trade,  this is all you should be searching for.   A couple good trades per month.  This is where the cycles give us the best odds of catching a turn.   The next turn is March 13th (plus or minus 72 hours).   This is where odds are best for a turn.   Not the absolute,  but the odds.   There are exceptions to this,  but the cycle turns should be considered very important and one (as you can see by the chart) should be reluctant to trade against them.  It's best when the market is in line with them.  


    Here are the current website orders.   The closer we get to March 13th - 15th the more I will adjust accordingly.

    SUMMARY 


    A blue cycle low in gold would be bullish.  That's the odds.  It would favor a rally into April and then we'll see.  The ideal time is March 13th (plus or minus 72 hours).  That means the cycle window opens March 10th.   That's less than 72 hours away.    Just in time for the NFP report.   Just keep in mind the cycle window will be open until the 16th and that means that the FED interest rates decision on March 15th is also in the cycle window.   So this is not going to be an EASY picking.

    The ideal price is going to be either 1182 (Plus or minus ten bucks) and/or 1200 (plus or minus 10 bucks).   It doesn't mean it can't be a lower number,  it just means the odds are the highest at these points.  


    ==================================================
    GOLD CURRENT WEBSITE TRADE
    ==================================================
    Buy 1 Gold contract Spot 1183.80

    Buy 1 Gold contract Spot 1173.80

    YTD = Gain $ 59.50
    ==================================================
    SILVER CURRENT WEBSITE TRADE
    ==================================================

    Buy 1 silver contract Spot if and when gold hits 1173.80 spot

    YTD = Gain $ 1.95

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

     Follow us on Twitter at @goldtrendsnet (no period)
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    Disclaimer
    The analyst intends to portray his thoughts and ideas on the subject which may be used as a tool for the reader. GoldTrends does not accept responsibility for being incorrect in its speculations on market trend or key turning points that it may discuss since they are at best a calculated analysis based on historical price observations. Do your own diligence. This is not a recommendation for you to buy or sell any commodity or stock. The analyst is merely listing one of the trades for his own account and what you do with that information is entirely up to you.  The analyst lists his trades as soon as possible but due to his style there are times he has bought or sold a position based on the PATTERNS that have been presented at the moment.  On those occasions, be aware that you will receive information of a buy or sell point that analyst has ALREADY TAKEN FOR HIS OWN ACCOUNT. While that is not the intention, we want to make sure you know that it does happen. We are not brokers---we are traders. We DO provide trade orders we have PLACED as soon as we decide, but due to style there will be times we have already entered or exited and we make you aware of that in each update.


  • 06 Mar 2017 4:09 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)


    Cycles

    The next cycle turn is March 13th (plus or minus 72 hours). The February red cycle was hit right on the head.

    Last week we said if there was no cycle inversion then resistance was the 200 day average at 1263-1272 & the 2011 downtrend line. The high came in at 1263.

    One of the 2 options laid out last week was a cycle inversion could be forming that would transform the rotation to a blue cycle low (BULLISH).

    IF this is playing out it removes a big concern we’ve had for gold and that’s red cycle lows. Real sustained bull markets are when we see blue cycle lows.

    While this would call for another week of pullback in gold, it would be setting up for a blue cycle low. That is the rotation we want to see when gold is in a bullish configuration.


    Cycles continued

    In this scenario, cycles peaked here at the red cycle (Feb 27th – plus or minus 72 hours) and gold is in a pullback into the blue cycle low due March 13th (plus or minus 72 hours). From there the rally resumes higher.


  • 13 Feb 2017 1:39 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)



    Cycles

    Here was the projection from January 27th in cycles for a move to the blue cycle due on Feb 10th.


    What now ?

    The odds favor scenario had us looking for higher gold price and a peak last week (Feb 10th – Plus or minus 72 hours) at the blue cycle.


  • 06 Feb 2017 6:43 PM | Bill Downey (Administrator)



    GOLD for the week of Feb 6th  2017

    Initial Resistance (1st tier) 1245-1255 (2nd Tier) 1272-1282

    Initial Support (1st tier) 1207-1219 (2nd Tier) 1190-1197

    Our last update listed resistance (2nd Tier) at 1222-1232 and the high was 1225. Support was listed at 1172-1182 and the low was 1197.

    Gold Short Term (Bullish since 1134) Goes Bearish on close below 1197

    Resistance this week and the odds favored targets are 1245-1255 and 1272-1282.

     Support 1207-1219 & 1192-1197. The Trend is up. Close below 1192-1197 puts short term bearish.   There's minor resistance at the 1235-1238 area at the red line.


    Pivot is the 1218-1222.

     As long as we’re above that, we’re heading for the resistance areas. There’s a minor resistance near 1235-1238 we need to get above (at the red line).  The trend remains up into this week & then we'll see.


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