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Identifying the Optimal Turning Points and Trends
of the Precious Metals Market
Home Page - updated Thursday Jan 26 2011 9:34 pm EST
Daily Gold Page - Updated Friday Jan 27 at 12:37 AM EST for Friday Jan 27 2012 trade day.
Daily Silver Page - Updated Friday Jan 27 at 1:50 AM EST for Friday Jan 27 2012 trade day.
The weekend reports are being worked on.................
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The 21st Century Gold and Silver Bull Market
GOLD and SILVER CHARTS (SCROLL DOWN)
Gold and Silver Update
Jan 27 2011
What could fuel a commodity, gold and silver and Global revival in 2012 ?
The Fed's come out and tell us its free money for the banks out into 2014
So now what ?
Most likely the other players are going to follow through. This is their chance to reflate and try to ge the global economy going again with a follow thru from the Fed. And who else but China to now make an announcement of their own. it would perfect timing from a global economic standpoint --and wait till you see the chart below. Consider this:
With China coming back on Monday, there could be a very big market rally there, as it is one of the lessor perfoming markets for 2011. China has already in in motion to loosen Monetary policy, and with the biggest migration of people from rural to city in the history of mankind, China needs to continue to lead in its economic boom as it replaces the USA as the engine of the world. (For those wondering -- the USA is arriving at the end of the tail pipe -- the exhaust).
The transformation into world leader is ALWAYS that of the one who has the economic manufacturing engine and its more than likely that this time will be no different. They are already in full process of obtaining the mineral rights required to transform their nation on a global basis and they are holding all the marbles at the moment. They are forging deals with nations to remove the US Dollar from trading. In other words, if everything works out ok, China is on the way of taking a major role in the transfer of the world currency away from the US dollar. I won't go as far to say (at the moment) that the Yuan will be the reserve currency, but at a minimum, it will play a major role and be a major percentage of the new coming World Reserve Basket Currency --- and for now, I'll call that the SDR (Special Drawing rights) that was created but never used when the USA went off the gold standard.
The chart of China below is suggesting a major cycle bottom has a high degree of developing at this point in time. We say this point in time because, as you can see, the chart below is at a MAJOR CYCLE POINT in time. What better time for China to announce stimulus of their own as they make their way into transforming their nation into its own Product Demand economy. The chart has done everything to suggest it is setting up for a major rally. It has broken the down trend line just enough to get the technician's and the hedge funds to abandon or get stopped out of their positions just at a time when PRICE IS AT THE MAJOR CYCLE TURN POINT and the Gann Arc's and wedge lines have come to form a major convergence with time and price.
Here's the point if the chart below is correct in signaling a major cycle bottom for China. That also means that a strong commodity rally should tag along. I have a strong suspicion that China is about to come out of this holiday with a major surge. IF PRICE MOVES ABOVE THE DOWNTREND LINE AND BACK ABOVE THE WHITE CHANNEL LINE, odds will strongly favor not only a short term rally, but a potential major bottom in it's stock market. Yes, I know the reports out there of how they are the biggest bubble of all and their economy is going to meltdown as well. By the looks of this chart, The bubble has already been deflated and if anything it reminds me of the NASDAQ's major bottom.
The chart suggests that a reversal may well be at hand, and while the world can end tomorrow for a number of reasons, the odds of any of those reasons being in play is very very small. In other words, if you've been waiting to put a bit of money to work in China, I don't see a better time. Now, if you believe the whole world is going to meltdown, then I can understand your reluctance. BUT THE RETURNS from here for China will be huge if the REFLATION exercise and the China Migration into the cities is successful. While no one knows the future --- China looks like a buy here. If it is, commodities should catch a bid. Nothing in speculation and investing is guaranteed. But without some risk, there is no reward. A small long term investment in China right now seems like an excellent long term entry point for those with an outlook to the future of China. IF CHINA RALLIES FROM HERE, I SUSPECT COMMODITIES will follow along with the winter seasonal bounce that is due.
Gold
The Gold Market had a terrific move on Wednesday as the Fed announced a loose monetary policy. While that was certainly the catalyst, the price move was exactly at the 34 week moving average. Look how well this average has served the medium term moves since the 2008 low. Since its such an important magnet to price, it is the best indicator you can use to gauge the overall trends. Look how well it compliments our Green momentum channel, which by the way, has once again provided a major low point in price with a direct hit on last months low.
Silver
SIlver ETF SLV
Silver continues to move off the lows. The MAJOR event here is since SLV only trades in New York, look how the low of Dc 29th was a new LOW as the September drop LOW was not during New York market hours. The December test made a new low on the charts with significance and completed a six wave liquidity low. Although there still is a small potential for one push lower to that lower line, it doesn't matter for longer term investors, but only for traders. We took advantage of the last drop and added at 27.40 for accumulation and 28.63 for a trade. (We sold the trade at 32.29). Price favors that the lows have been made in silver. If we follow historical norms, 2012 should be a wide trading range, but overall a consolidation.
Hui Gold Stock Index
The HUI gold index has been in a massive choppy and overlapping pattern all year. The "intermediate term" moving average trend has given a buy signal for a trade as the bullish bule average has moved above the red. As you can see by the chart, this indicator has a good track record even in a chop to ascertain the "trend" --- We just got the signal so any pullback to teh 513-520 area is a consideration for a short term long.
The US Stock market
Price continues to rise inside an new upleg for stocks. An intrim peak is approaching but is not quite here yet. The trends on our moving averages remain up. We're supporting on a pivot point here. The trend remains up.
US Dollar
The US dollar remains in an intermediate up trend but is at a potential point of failure inside a wedge. The white line is a long term channe line so this area is important. Price for the time in a month has dropped below the moving averages, and is throwing up a RED FLAG warning that the "Trend" is being challenged. Seasonally, the Dollar usually tops in January, so that plays as well. There's a huge short crowd in the EURO too --- and the potential for the EURO to rally is a strong consideration as well.
The EURO has reached a long term support line. Telling is how price dropped below it just enough to trigger the stops and have the technicians go bearish. But as we've said many times, its not the break of the channel that is important, its what price does right after that. With the entire market on the short side, its not going to take a lot to get them covering their leveraged positions. Price is already at the moving averages and while the trend is still down, we favor a rally attempt here. Note how the 2011 January low was right in this zone. This is most likely the range that the central banks are supporting on the downside. Barring a major default, the Euro could surprise everyone and begin an upturn that could last into the March/April timeframe.
For the technician's out there -- how bout this for a major bottom Head and Shoulder inverted formation.
Buttonwood turn dates (BELOW)
The group is working on refining many aspects and is also studying if there are longer term signals that can be extracted from the data they use. Buttonwood dates usually emit a trend change -- or an acceleration in price. As in all timing indicators --- there is no holy grail.
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WE HAVE A NEW BUTTONWOOD -- BUTTON --- CLICK ON BOTTOM BUTTON ON THE LEFT OF THE SCREEN -- NON MEMBERS CAN CLICK THE BUTTON ALSO. LOTS MORE CHARTS THERE.
Printed 36 hours before the correction low --------- the GLD chart shows a Weekly / LT Cluster Buster turn date --- and it was right at the correction low so far in gold.
The Buttonwoods LT CYCLE DATE OF DECEMBER 28th has been the exact low of the year i the PRECIOUS METALS. Click on the buttonwood tab on the left side of this page --- its free and view the daily and weekly turn points.
January 1 2012 -- SEASONAL UPDATE
The longer term seasonal's show that the February area is a great place for a first quarter top and that is what we will favor. We'll look for a pullback into the week of Jan 9th and then a push up into the 3rd week of January and then a pullback near month end.
http://www.mrci.com/web/index.php(chart below Moore Research)
If you'd like a free trial to the web site, send me an email at goldtrends@gmail.com
Chart from: Moore Research Center Charts
THE LONG TERM SILVER CHART
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The 21st Century Gold Bull Market
As long as we have negative rates --- gold will be at its strongest ..........
When does gold rally the most? When we have negative interest rates. UPDATED up to 2011
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